Immigration and Population

1.3       Effect on overall GDP and Productivity (GDP per capita)

As noted above, any addition to the labour force will increase the income calculation of GDP to  some degree.  Over 5 years, 1.5 million people contributing 45% of the average annual added value per head will add to the GDP of 30 million indigenous workers

            0.45 x (1.5/30) x 100% = 2.25%     or 0.45% per annum

This pretty much corresponds to the margin which Gordon Brown has claimed for UK economic growth over comparable Continental economies, and clearly owes absolutely nothing to his financial policies, prudent or not.

However over the same 5 years, average UK GDP per capita will have dropped due to the difference between the average indigenous worker and the average immigrant worker, i.e. by

            (1 –  0.45) x (1.5/30) x 100 = 2.75%           or 0.55% per annum.  

This corresponds to a slide down the international productivity table over 5 years equivalent to around $900 per head.  [The UK average GDP per head in 2004 was $33,200.]

2          Effect of Indigenous Birth rate on the Dependency Ratio (DR) [Number of Dependants ÷Working age population]

From time to time the United Nations publishes overall population data for member countries including working age population (WAP)s projected forward.  The 2006 projection for 2050 was published in 2007[7].  These figures are in the main based on birth rate, death rate and working life assumptions made by the member countries.  For Britain they show an increase in WAP (of about 1.3 million by 2050) in contrast to the rest of the EU which shows a collective decrease of about 59 millions!

It is noteworthy that the Labour government originally cited the 2001 National Statistical Office  projected increase in the UK dependency ratio (from about 0.54 to about 0.65 without immigration) over the next 30 years as justification for its immigration free-for-all policy.  But the 200l NSO projections were based among other things on the following assumptions:

1          There would be only 86,000 excess of births over deaths per year (i.e. natural increase).

2          The working life would stay fixed at 16-64.

3          Around 5 million working age people will continue to be long-term sick on disability benefit or otherwise declining a job (including what the NSO quaintly describes as “discouraged”).

2.1       National Statistical Office population projections

The 2007 population projections included an allowance for 200,000 net immigration indefinitely – an assumption of 325,000 foreigner immigrants less 125,000 British emigrants – which if continued over the 43 years to 2050 would add 14 million foreigners to our population and diminish by 5 million the native British population – a fundamental change in the population make-up amounting to ethnic cleansing on a huge scale, which would be rejected by the rest of the world if imposed on themselves and by almost all British people if they were given a chance to see what is projected for them. 

2.2       Birth Rate Data

Projections are not facts.  In 1979, the NSO projected an increase of 1,246,000 in the UK population by 1997, to be compared with the actual increase of 2,861,000, a huge error which clearly cannot be attributed to the mass immigration encouraged by Labour from 1997 onwards.

The principal reasons for the NSO underestimate were:

(i)         a considerable increase in the birth rate from the disastrous years of Labour government chaos in the 1970s.

(ii)        a 20% decrease in the male death rate over the same period.

Significant changes in birth rate (or rather female fertility rate) over a 10 year period are in fact quite common.  E.g.

Table 3: Birth rate and fertility rate changes over 50 years

Years Birth Rate[8] Fertility Rate[9]
1950-52 16.0 2.4
1960-62 17.9 2.8
1970-72 15.8 2.4
1980-82 13.0 1.8
1999 11.8 1.7
2006 12.3 1.8

A small increase in the UK birth rate would lower the dependency ratio significantly.  If the fertility rate went up by 10% to around 2.0 (France is at this figure now) this would result in an additional 75,000 babies per year (790,000 instead of 720,000), increasing the Working Age Population (WAP) in 2050 by an additional 2.1 million to around 42 million.  With zero net immigration, the total population would be around 67 millions, giving a  dependency ratio of

            DR ≈ 0.59

instead of 0.65 as derived from the NSO 2001 projections.

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