Immigration and Population

2.3       A change in the working age range would also keep the DR down

At present, the working age population (WAP) is those between the ages of 15-64 (59 for women) and is clearly out of date.  In 2001 some 827,000 people older than these upper limits were shown as in work, and the year to April 2007 registered an increase of about 70,000.

With the starting year for most people’s employment increasing well beyond 15, and the expectation of life continuing to increase (69 males, 75 females in1970-2; 75 males, 80 females in 1998-00), it is reasonable to see the working age population as being between 18 and 69 by 2030 (i.e. 52 years in place of the present 50 for males, 52 years in place of 45 for females).  This would increase the WAP by about 7% or 3 million, giving a further reduction of dependency ratio on top of the birth rate effect (2.3) from 0.59 to

            DR = 0.49        (i.e. a Support Ratio of about 2)

i.e. better than today’s figure (DR = 0.54).  With these two measures, even if only 80% achieved, disappears any justification for immigration as a policy for increasing the vitality of the native British population.

3          Summing Up

—          For the mass immigrations the UK has undergone in the last 10 years, the figures point incontrovertibly to the fact that the economy has been weakened, not strengthened, and this is not counting the major disbenefits in the related areas of congestion, education and housing[10].

—          The present rate of immigration and emigration assumed in NSO projections to 2050 would see an additional 14 million foreigners enter and 5 million British leave, a complete change in the ethnic make-up of the English population for which there is no modern precedent, and absolutely no agreement by the English people[11].

—          Most, not all, immigrants can supply only manual labour in industries such as tourism and care homes, which have relatively low capital intensities compared with the production industries where, by contrast, job numbers are declining.

—          However much, in the short-term an employer needs a pair of hand, the plain fact is that in the medium term, let alone long-term, cheap labour will either retard innovation and investment or allow large numbers of the indigenous population to lounge around on benefits (see Table 1) or (most likely) both.

—          Increasing the British population’s birth rate by 10% to a modest 13.2 per 1,000 would represent the best, most natural way of keeping the dependency ratio to a manageable size (around 0.5) without the strains and trauma of mass immigration of foreign peoples.

Ten Measures Needed which affect the Economy as well as everything else

Steps to rectify the present immigration mess should include:

(1)        Establish a proper register of those leaving and entering the country (this is not difficult to do).

(2)       Institute a job permit system for all immigrants, whether EU or not.  Permits would be for one year with a possibility for renewal yearly up to 5 years.  Any renewals would count against an annual fixed limit on all work permits in force.

(3)        Remove central and local government grants to immigration pressure groups.

(4)        Use Job Centre data to compute the number of job vacancies closely defined in each economic sector and give the Job Centres a target to fill these with British citizens.

(5)        Set numbers of future immigrant admissions and job permits, if any, as not more than 50% of the difference between the Job Centre achieved job placing and the declared job vacancies assessed over a one year period.  Where job vacancies are seasonal (e.g. in horticulture and hotels) insist as in Switzerland that people leave the country at the end of the season.

(6)        Make it clear to all (including sundry Churchmen) that overstaying a work permit or visa period is a serious offence which will entail automatic deportation of the offender and penalties for those conniving in the offence.

(7)        Introduce a 5-year freeze on all immigration for settlement to give a breathing space to find and deport illegals, including refused asylum seekers. 

(8)        The maximum numbers which could be admitted under (5) should be put to the British people in a referendum.

(9)        A serious attempt should be made to change the benefit systems so that an estimated 200,000 young people (16-17 years) are not allowed to lounge around doing nothing.

(10)        The availability of non-contributory benefits should also be narrowed so that the numbers of the working age population (particularly males) who do not want jobs (3.5 million) be considerably reduced.  These two measures alone could transfer a further ½ million into the labour force.  With unemployment at 1.8 million (Table 1), and huge numbers unnecessarily tied up in low-wage distribution jobs (over 5 million – proportionately more even than in the USA), the country has plenty of spare labour, and absolutely no need of immigration.

S F Bush

12th August 2007

(revised 10th March 2010) 


 Footnotes

[1] In the United Kingdom immigration has significant numerical and employment effects only in England.

[2] In fact, as many have suspected, the Labour government was described in the London Evening Standard by Andrew Neather, former advisor to Prime Minister Blair, Justice Minister Straw and former Home Secretary Blunkett, to have declared at a meeting that Neather attended in 2000 that their “driving political purpose” was to promote mass immigration as the way to  make the UK truly multicultural.  Our poor country has in fact been the subject of a wicked attempt to push out its native inhabitants to make way for incomers, a crime committed by the Labour government against its own people.

[3] Main sources are the Annual Abstracts published by the National Statistical Office (NSO).

[4] Congestion increases much faster than proportionately, indeed at least as the square of the population increase, when roads and public places are already crowded.

[5] Currently defined as 16-64 for males, 16-59 for females, due to rise to 16-64 by 2011.

[6] The claimant count (job-seeker’s allowance) is about half this, c. 900,000.

[7] World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, United Nations

[8] Live births per 1,000 population per annum.

[9] Live births to 15-44 age group of women ¸ number of women in group x 30 years.  Roughly births per woman.

[10] 40% of new houses built over the 10 years to 2007 can be accounted for in effect by newcomers.

[11] As stated in the summary, mass immigration has overwhelmingly affected England rather than Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

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