It would be wrong I believe to attribute a degree of schadenfreude to the British people after the news that African migrants are busy establishing a Calais-type camp on the Swiss-Italian border in the idyllic town of Como and on the shores of the famous lake itself.

Nonetheless the British people are awfully tired of being lectured by assorted human rights activists, pop-people, clerics and film stars on the need for Britain and Europe to be “more generous” in their migrant admissions policies. So when such people are directly affected by migrants as are various celebrities, including George and Amal Clooney, who have taken up residence in Como and surroundings, there is a natural wish that the celebs will come to recognise that the enormous African population increases and the terrible misgovernment over the last 50 years since independence from European rule, have combined to create in some countries a huge refugee/migrant out-flow of unprecedented dimensions. Ironically, the Clooneys have recently hosted a lavish fund-raiser to send aid to Darfur (Southern Sudan) while in the meantime Darfur has come to them!

Size of African-Middle East Population Pressure

The present refugee crisis in the Middle East and Southern Europe, although proximately brought about by the terrible civil wars in Syria, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Darfur, is magnified by the dramatic population increases in these and other middle-East and African countries. Syria’s population for instance had increased by TEN times in the 60 years up to the start of the civil war in 2011. Africa’s population has increased from around 140 million in 1950 (approximately 40% of the EU countries’ population) to 850 million today (160% of the EU’s). That is, Africa’s population has increased to nearly six times its 1950 size in 60 years, while the EU countries’ population has increased by under half – much of that increase accounted for by immigration from Asia and Africa.

Responsible factors: Sky-high African and Middle East birth rates

The difference between birth rates (expressed as a number of live births reaching the age of one year per thousand population) and death rates (deaths over the age of one) gives the “natural increase” of the population. Pretty well all countries in the world have seen welcome decreases in death rates due to better nutrition and health-care. However Africa’s population growth to six times its 1950 size in 60 years corresponds to a natural increase of 30 per thousand of the population, a three percent (3%) per annum. This is made up of birth rates in the 35-45 range and death rates of 10-15 per thousand. (Britain’s increase is made up of about 12 for the birth rate and 8.5 death rate per thousand of the population, or 0.35% per annum natural increase – one eighth of Africa’s).

No country or economy can withstand population increases of 3% per year and maintain any semblance of public order and keep unemployment below 10% for long. A birth rate of 35-40 per thousand at the current African expectation of life of say 60 years corresponds to an average fertility rate per woman of almost 5 surviving children (the EU rate is about 1.7).

Only a sustained foreign aid programme by government and charities, focussed exclusively on:

• incentivised contraception programmes
• creation of local industries and relevant infrastructure
• an enhanced World Trade Organisation initiative aimed at facilitating exports to the rest of the world beyond Africa.

will arrest the increasing immigration pressure on Europe, which will not dissipate of its own accord, and which has now reached crisis proportions.

This strategy must be coupled with rigid controls on entry to European countries including:

• immediate deportation of illegal immigrants back to the last country they came from, without recourse to the courts of the illegally-entered country
• where asylum is granted, it shall apply only to an individual and not to his or her dependants
• an intensive leaflet and TV campaign to tell would-be migrants that they will only be admitted to the EU and the UK, if they have valid visitor visas with medical insurance, money to support themselves, and return tickets.

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