Contents of page
- The Effects of Immigration on the Population and Economy of the United Kingdom
- UKIP Policy Paper on Immigration (March 2010)
- Letter to the Daily Telegraph about congestion in the SE of England
1. The Effects of Immigration on the Population and Economy of the United Kingdom
Contents of Paper
- Summary
- 1 Claimed Benefits and Disbenefits of Immigration
- 1.1 Effect of Immigration on Size of Work Force (Table 1)
- 1.2 Likely Pay Patterns for Immigrant Workers (Table 2)
- 1.3 Effect on overall GDP and Productivity (GDP per capita)
- 2 Effect of Indigenous Birth Rate on the Dependency Ratio (DR)
- 2.1 National Statistical Office Projections
- 2.2 Birth Rate Data (Table 3)
2.3 A Change in the Working Age range would also keep the DR down - 3 Summing up: Ten measures needed affecting the Economy
Immigration has been a constant concern for 50 years in London and many other English urban areas[1], particularly the West Midlands, North West England and Yorkshire. These are all areas largely responsible in the past for two mass industries – car making and textiles – the labour forces of which have declined by around 70% since the 1960s. There is not surprisingly relatively high unemployment in these areas, particularly among young muslims.
From 1997 when it came into office, until very recently (2009) the Labour government has encouraged well over three million [2] foreigners to settle in this countrywhile over a million native British people have left. Labour has shown itself totally uncaring about the effects on the native British people, preferring to focus instead on the alleged economic benefits, particularly as represented by the increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The purpose of this brief paper is to provide the essential data for rejecting Gordon Brown’s ‘economic benefit’ argument for mass immigration, and propose measures to bring immigration under control at a low level.
One part of the economic benefit argument is the assumption that the injection of large numbers of working age immigrants will help solve the so-called demographic time-bomb, i.e. the sharp increase in the projected dependency ratio (DR) which is:
Number of dependants (children and retired folk) ÷ Working age population (WAP)
The paper includes data[3] which shows that a relatively small increase in the birth-rate of the indigenous population and a natural shift in the working age range will obviate entirely the alleged need to introduce foreign immigrants for the purpose of holding the DR at or about its present level (0.53 i.e. just under 2 workers for each dependant).
1 Claimed Benefits and Disbenefits of Immigration
There are essentially two benefits proclaimed by the Labour government and its supporters (on this issue) in the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties:
(1) Immigration allows a faster rate of economic growth than otherwise, and
(2) It relieves labour shortages in key industries, particularly so-called hi-tech industries (though nobody defines what they mean by this.)
However there are three major economic disbenefits seldom talked about:
(3) In the British (and the US) economy, mass immigration has generally depressed average productivity for which GDP per head of population is the best single indicator, and the principal measure of living standards.
(4) At key pinch points, congestion is noticeably increased[4] in transport, housing, public facilities – notably schools – by numbers above 100,000, let alone the 3,000,000 or so immigrants admitted by the Labour government since 1997.
(5) When immigrants come from poor areas all over the world, not just from Commonwealth countries where there may be some common cultural factors like the English language, they create an immense problem in schools and health services over and above their numbers. This huge problem is particularly visible in London schools.
In each of (1) to (5), numbers are absolutely critical. What may apply to 1,000 people (out of 64 million resident in the UK) won’t necessarily apply to 10,000 and almost certainly will not apply to 100,000, let alone nearly two million since 2004 when East European countries (the A8) were given free entry by the Labour government. Germany and France refused to allow this until 2009, calculating correctly that Britain would bear the brunt of the East European flood to the West.